Firi Weekly: Crypto Prices Turned Positive

Firi Weekly: Crypto Prices Turned Positive

  • The Crypto Market Turns Positive:
    • Bitcoin, Ethereum, and much of the crypto market reached their highest prices in about six weeks early this week, following steady gains last week. This increase seems to be driven especially by strong inflows into the crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and by the market placing less emphasis on geopolitical risks, especially the conflict in the Middle East. However, this remains a significant concern, as seen in recent days with the crypto market declining.
  • U.S. Clarity Act Faces Delays and Uncertainty:
    • The greatly anticipated U.S. crypto regulation bill has stalled and is now unlikely to advance before April, with passage in 2026 at risk due to the midterms. Overall, this risks delaying increased institutional adoption because of the continued lack of regulatory clarity.
  • BlackRock Launches Staked Ethereum ETF:
    • The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, launched a new Ethereum ETF that stakes between 70% and 95% of its Ethereum. Its $145 million of inflows in 4 days signals strong investor demand, mainly because of the extra yield generated through staking.
  • Ethereum Foundation Defines Neutral Mandate:
    • The Ethereum Foundation’s new 38-page mandate emphasizes decentralization and neutrality, but has sparked debate over whether it should place greater priority on ecosystem growth and products.

Last Week’s Big Three

What Is the Status of the Clarity Act? In recent months, the U.S. Clarity Act has been a central focus for the crypto market. The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto industry, particularly by clarifying whether the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should oversee different parts of the market. This is widely viewed as a positive step, as it would provide clearer rules for both crypto-native firms and traditional financial institutions looking to enter the space, ultimately supporting broader adoption.

However, progress stalled in January due to a tug-of-war between banks and crypto firms. The key point of contention is whether crypto firms should be allowed to offer interest or rewards on stablecoins. Crypto firms support this flexibility, while banks oppose it.

No agreement has been reached since then, and the timeline for passage remains uncertain. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East now also appears to have diverted political attention elsewhere. U.S. Senator John Thune noted last week that the bill is unlikely to advance before April. Meanwhile, Galaxy, a major U.S. crypto firm, warned that if the bill is not passed by then, the chances of it passing in 2026 are low, partly due to the November midterm elections.

BlackRocks Staked U.S. Ethereum ETF Launches: Last Thursday, BlackRock launched its first ETF that stakes a portion of its underlying cryptocurrency, in this case Ethereum. The firm’s existing U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are already among the most popular in their category. The new product, the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB), is expected to stake between 70% and 95% of its Ether holdings and distribute an estimated 3% annual yield from staking rewards.

The ETF launched with approximately $100 million in assets under management and saw $15.5 million in trading volume on its first day. It has since recorded $145 million in net inflows over its first four days of trading. This is a solid start.

To underscore the importance of these instruments, BlackRock’s existing Ethereum ETF has attracted nearly $12 billion in net inflows since its launch in July 2024. The addition of staking rewards could further strengthen Ethereum’s appeal to investors by providing a recurring yield component.

The Ethereum Foundation Publishes Mandate: The Ethereum Foundation (EF), the non-profit organization that supports and funds much of Ethereum’s development, published a new 38-page mandate last week. The document reaffirms its role as a neutral steward of the network, with a strong emphasis on decentralization, privacy and security rather than centralized control.

The mandate has generated mixed reactions. Some view the renewed focus on neutrality and decentralization as a strength, while others argue the foundation should take a more active role in driving demand for Ethereum. This includes fostering a stronger ecosystem of applications and encouraging greater institutional adoption.

Behind the Charts

Chart 1: Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices, Year-to-Date

Firi illustration

The crypto market delivered a solid performance last week. Bitcoin traded as high as approximately $74,000, while Ethereum reached around $2,210, before both moved higher again this week. The prices set this week mark the highest levels for both assets in roughly six weeks.

Over the past week, the market appeared to increasingly look past global uncertainty, particularly the conflict in the Middle East and the associated risk of higher inflation driven by rising energy prices such as oil. However, this changed in recent days, as the conflict in the Middle East has flared up and negatively affected crypto prices. Meanwhile, U.S.-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continued to see strong inflows last week, highlighting sustained demand from more traditional investors.

A Number to Remember

20 million

The 20 millionth Bitcoin was mined last Monday — in other words, issued — meaning that only 1 million bitcoins remain to be mined. The final Bitcoin is expected to be mined around 2140.

On Our Radar

On our radar for the week ahead:

  • How Will the Conflict in the Middle East Develop? We continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and the conflict involving the U.S. and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. In the near term, these developments are likely to remain a key driver of market sentiment, primarily through their effect on energy prices, inflation expectations, and overall risk appetite.
  • Was That a Dead Cat Bounce? A key question is whether the recent increase in crypto prices is sustainable or simply a so-called dead cat bounce, defined as a temporary recovery within a broader downtrend.
  • Will ETF Inflows Continue? The sustainability of the recent price gains will depend heavily on continued inflows into crypto exchange-traded products, which have been strong in recent weeks. We are also watching whether BlackRock’s new staked Ethereum ETF can maintain its early momentum.
Portrait of Mads Eberhardt, Cryptocurrency Analyst at Firi.

Mads Eberhardt

Written 19/03/2026

Should not be considered financial advice. Crypto may involve high risk.